Church leaders can forget the Alamo, and the Maine. But they must “Remember the S curve.”

The S curve — shown here in a graphic sent out by business blogger Whitney Johnson — shows what happens as a new idea takes hold, or a compelling vision, or fresh leadership, or a new mission thrust.

If the idea or vision has legs, it will start slowly, then gather momentum as people buy into it and become excited by it. This new vision captures many imaginations. It puts into action the deepest values of the organization — in this case, a congregation.

Despite their usual resistance to change, this vision enables people to acquire new knowledge, form fresh relationships, reach outside themselves, and behave in new ways. People begin to dream. They welcome — or at least tolerate — the disruption that comes with fresh ideas.

They do so initially with a sense of risk — exciting risk — and then become confident about the new direction. As the graphic says, it helps them to “make sense” of the world around them.

At this point, the S curve starts to turn down. Initial excitement wears off. “Constant growth and change” become irritating. The early-adopters get tired or lose interest. Late adopters don’t sign on with the same level of enthusiasm.

Conflict starts to emerge. Voices that remained quiet during the growth period come to life and demand a “return to the basics,” that is, to the way things were before the S curve began to happen. This is delusional, of course, because conditions have changed and there is no going backward. But this group can stir up a lot of trouble by tapping into change fatigue and declaring change wrong.

Leaders become vulnerable to attack. The effective leader has been helping the S curve to happen. Now he or she catches blame for the resulting disruption.

People get confused by the murmuring and lose heart. They signed on to pursue the dream, not to fuss about who’s in charge and how much is being spent.

At this point, two things can happen One: fresh and bold leadership will start a new S curve going. Name the new vision, articulate the fresh dream. Recruit new workers for the next phase of disruption.

Or two, the downward slope will accelerate, and a death spiral will commence. It gets harder and harder to locate anything fresh and hopeful. The backward-lookers are in charge, and their instinct is, in effect, a death wish. Leaders get discouraged and move on. Charged-up workers often leave the rudderless ship. It turns out people were committed to the compelling vision, not to the institution.

One piece of advice: don’t let the backward-lookers, the back-to-basics people return to leadership. Instead, recruit the next cohort of young and eager leaders.

A second piece of advice: don’t pounce on key leaders for “failing.” Instead, invite them to articulate their next compelling vision.

Overall, don’t be discouraged when the laws of inertia and gravity take effect. You haven’t done anything wrong. You just need to thank God for the compelling vision that was so exciting, and ask God, “What’s next?”
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About the Author

Tom Ehrich is a writer, church consultant and Episcopal priest based in New York. He is the publisher of Fresh Day online magazine, author of On a Journey and two national newspaper columns. His website is Church Wellness – Morning Walk Media